This year's Black Friday forecasts 2023
Opinions have generally been divided regarding expectations for this year's Black Week/Friday, according to surveys from the Confederation of Danish Industry and the Danish Chamber of Commerce. The restraint in consumer spending that has characterised all of 2023 has raised concerns about whether Danish consumers would live up to businesses' desired expectations.
External factors affecting the Danish economy have resulted in high inflation, which has impacted household finances. This has heightened awareness of the vulnerability in consumers' financial situations, which was considered a decisive factor during the Black Week period. As a result, Danes' attention to prices has also intensified, with more and more people becoming increasingly price-conscious, despite the now-falling inflation and lower energy prices.
In light of the initial assumptions, however, a survey from the Confederation of Danish Industry revealed that as many as 62% of Danes had plans to go bargain hunting on this year's Black Friday. This positive development, which also includes a 10% increase in the number of potential buyers compared to last year, suggests that despite earlier concerns, there is still interest and anticipation among Danes to take advantage of Black Friday deals.
However, given consumers' price-consciousness and the heightened competition among retailers, this year's preparations for Black Week/Friday have been critical to performing well throughout the week. This includes the right strategy and approach across channels — something we have helped our clients with, among other things.
Black Week sets record sales in 2023
Despite the mixed expectations for this year's Black Week/Friday, the week once again managed to surpass last year's performance.
According to data from MobilePay, it became clear that Danes were willing to spend their money, resulting in an increase in MobilePay transactions compared to last year:
2023: 4.6 million transactions equating to a revenue of DKK 3 billion
2022: 4.4 million transactions equating to a revenue of DKK 2.8 billion
Webshops have been aggressive with many great deals spread throughout the entire week, and although Black Week continues to grow, there is still a tendency for consumers to expect additional offers on Black Friday itself. Black Friday 2023 therefore remains the biggest day in terms of revenue.
Looking more closely at the development among a number of e-commerce clients across industries as well as overall online revenue, we see the following data:
The figures above are also supported by Searchmind's data, which shows an overall positive progression. This includes a positive year-on-year (YOY) development both on Black Friday (BF) with an index value of 104, and on Black Week to Cyber Monday (BWCM) with the most significant growth, recorded at an index value of 112.
The figures further show that some industries have been hard hit, while others have experienced significant growth compared to last year. Across 11 industries, 7 have seen an increase compared to last year, while 4 industries have experienced a decline. It is important to note, however, that there will naturally be a dark figure for some industries due to the data basis.
Which initiatives laid the foundation for success?
We have looked more closely at the clients who performed well during the Black Week period to gain a better understanding of the similarities and trends that broadly formed the basis for success.
Paid Social
In general, a large number of our clients have achieved impressive revenue through Paid Social this year. We are breaking last year's records in both revenue and ROAS for multiple clients.
The following initiatives have proven particularly successful in the Black Week strategy in 2023:
- Black Week success: Clients who were active on Paid Social and started their Black Week campaigns as early as 17 November through to 27 November achieved the highest success rate.
- Consistent messaging: Successful campaigns were characterised by a consistent message without changing ads or running daily spot deals.
- Budget-friendly price range: Clients with products in the DKK 200–600 price range also drove the most conversions.
- Changed user behaviour: In contrast to last year, when “cold audiences” performed best on Paid Social, it appears that this year it was primarily users who were already familiar with the business or were loyal/existing customers who accounted for the majority of revenue.
- Increased focus on lead ads: Competition for lead ads has been intense, making it essential to have sharp target audiences, strong creatives and attractive offers in order to stand out.
- Live Sales effect: The use of Live Sales has proven to be an effective additional channel, contributing positively to revenue during Black Week.
- Focus on spend: Advertisers who dared to invest more during Black Week experienced the greatest impact, with an increase of approximately 30–50% in spend.
Email marketing
Email marketing has once again proven to be an essential channel in the marketing mix this year, with our clients' Black Friday, Black Week and Black Month initiatives activating, engaging and converting thousands of subscribers. The initiatives that performed best this year may surprise you.
The preparatory work in the lead-up to Black Week, Month and Friday requires a synergistic approach to campaign emails, lead generation and flow emails alike. It is not only important to have a competitive offer; it is equally critical that this offer effectively reaches the relevant recipient list.
Competition for attention in the email inbox intensifies significantly during the busy shopping month, and (unfortunately) many prioritise quantity over quality. This has not been the case among the clients who managed to turn the week into a success with the help of email marketing. These clients succeeded in crafting well-composed emails with clearly defined messages, helping their subscribers understand what it was all about.
The following initiatives have proven particularly successful in the Black Week strategy in 2023:
- Segmentation, segmentation, segmentation – it cannot be stressed enough. Deliverability is crucial when it comes to email marketing, and this is especially true during Black Week. Many people are ready to unsubscribe from newsletters if they feel they are receiving uninteresting or too many emails. Through a careful segmentation process, our clients have collected valuable data for use in the coming year. At the same time, they have managed to maintain a healthy open and click rate by continuously evaluating the relevant segments for each send.
- Manipulating dynamic data to avoid 'broken emails': A broken email is defined as an email featuring out-of-stock products, incorrect prices and off-target messaging. The clients who managed to avoid broken emails made use of customised dynamic flow elements with specific attributions, including whether a product is on offer, out of stock, or part of a special deal. This laid the groundwork for great customer experiences and a positive impact on their performance, as attention was paid to the details.
- The personal touch: The emails that performed best during Black Week, Month or Friday were plain-text emails with a personal message from the business owner. Although the visual and graphic emails also performed well, the simple message has repeatedly proven to be the most effective across multiple cases, both in financial terms and in terms of engagement. This once again confirms that the personal touch is essential when our clients work with email marketing.
PPC
This year, PPC has observed trends shaped by customers' intense focus on prices as a direct consequence of inflation and purchasing power. This has resulted in a few, but significant, overarching trends and initiatives that together have contributed to our clients' success throughout the week.
The following initiatives have proven particularly successful in the Black Week strategy in 2023:
- Clear messaging and strong offers: Clients who delivered clear messaging and offers with a significant discount — including a minimum of 20% across a broad range of products — experienced a positive response from their customers.
- Optimised setup with seasonal bid adjustments: A carefully optimised setup with seasonal adjustments has been decisive. This involves adapting bids and advertising to accommodate changes in customer behaviour and demand during the Black Week period.
- Increased spend: Clients who were not afraid to increase their spend benefited from doing so. A more aggressive investment in advertising contributed to, among other things, increased visibility and performance during the period.
- Blended ROAS and a cross-channel focus: Clients who adopted a holistic approach with a focus on ROAS across different channels proved successful. It also contributed to a consistent thread, with messaging and offers coordinated across platforms.
- More sessions before purchase: Due to increased caution among consumers, more sessions were required this year before they converted into an actual purchase. This resulted in a lower CTR, indicating that customers are taking longer and making more visits before deciding to make a purchase.
Overall, success among our PPC clients this year has been tied to advertisers who managed to communicate a clear and consistent message with attractive offers, while also providing quality products at reduced prices. This approach has been in line with consumer behaviour, which has generally involved buying more and making purchasing decisions earlier compared to last year. Clients who invested in visibility throughout the entire week and did not cut their budget therefore achieved success in the competitive market.
The overall analysis of Black Week 2023
Black Week and Black Friday 2023 have, on the whole, pleasantly surprised, given the earlier concerns about consumer restraint. The increase in transactions and sustained demand for deals demonstrates consumers' willingness to spend money, even in uncertain times.
Overall, the businesses that dared to think big, invest strategically and adapt to changing market conditions achieved remarkable success – a success that has positively influenced the remainder of the Christmas shopping season and at the same time creates positive expectations for 2024.
Do you want to break your revenue record next time Black Week & Friday comes around?
If you have been inspired to achieve great results for Black Week & Friday, you can find tips on how to best prepare your email marketing efforts here.
If, on the other hand, you need a transparent partner who is ready to take you by the hand and ensure your growth, we are here to help. Based on your business and future goals, we ensure that your potential customers are transformed into valuable conversions. Contact us today for a no-obligation chat about your options!
